Is Germany a nation on the brink of decline?

Apparently the German government is under pressure to spend some of its record budget surplus - a staggering €13.5 Bn at the end of 2019 - on tax cuts and on infrastructure investment. Months of weakening economic growth have left the economy skirting with recession and the headline unemployment figure of less than 4% masks the fact that nearly 8 million people are living on near poverty Harzt Vier wages of €450 per month. Internal domestic demand in Germany is about 55% of overall GDP - easily the lowest in the G7 and the country is dangerously dependent on exports which have been caught in the crossfire of Trump's trade war with China.

B6/248 near Salzgitter four lane bridge reduced to single lane each way and 40 kph

Motorway Rhine bridge at Duisburg with weight restrictions and reduced speed limit

Was zu tun? Years of insistence of balancing the books, known colloquially as Schwarz Null, have left schools, bridges, parks and other public infrastructure increasingly dilapidated and a failure to invest in digital technology at national and local government level has left the country's administrative functions stuck in the paper and fax driven 1990s. I have ceased to be amazed by Germany's bureaucratic state - each town has its own vehicle registration office and passports and other forms of formal identification are initiated at least at Stadt level using paper forms. Hello! Its 2020; most other advanced countries manage these things centrally and online.  Furthermore, there is a worrying trend of managerial and project management incompetence, the most infamous example of which must be Berlin Airport.  Planning for a new national airport in Germany's capital started almost immediately after the country's reunification in 1989.  The new airport should have opened in June 2012 but unbelievably is still not operational due to a list of faults and failures too long to list here.  In the meantime, Berlin continues to be served by the simply dreadful DDR-era Schoenfeld and that icon to 1970s design and planning, Tegel.   

Berlin's airport situation is a national disgrace

Goslar Rathaus - no longer under wraps but still not finished

Closer to home here in Goslar, the Rathaus has been being restored and re-developed for as long as I have been in Goslar - nearly 7 years.  The latest information I can find says that everything should be finished by the end of 2019 though major works seem to be continuing with no apparent end in sight.  Goslar is reliant on tourism therefore one would have thought the commissioning of the Rathaus which overlooks the Marktplatz, would have been a priority!  Apparently not and the wait goes on.

F125 class frigate

Germany's defence forces have become a bad joke with the country now unable to meet its NATO commitments. Often less than 50% of tanks, ships and aircraft are available at anyone one time.  Whilst defence spending is increasing - but remains substantially below the NATO 2% of GDP target - money is being wasted in a bureaucratic morass failing to focus on delivering actual military capability.  Similarly, serious failings in procurement policy have seen the navy's new F125 class of frigates delayed by more than 3 years due to design and build flaws. When I last checked, all for of the navy's submarines were out of service for repair - incredible!

Engineering excellence

Of course there are many things that Germany does incredibly well, especially in the engineering field.  But even here, supremacy is under threat. The automobile industry banked everything on diesel and lied to the public about its emissions and is now desperately playing catch up rugby with other manufacturers who invested earlier in battery technology.  It is clear that Germany needs a new economic model.  More of the same will not even paper over the cracks. It will be interesting to see whether Germany's politicians are brave and radical enough to enact the reforms needed to remain ahead during the forthcoming decade. In many respects, German economic success over the past 10 - 15 years has been a mirage built upon low wages for far too many and an undervalued currency that has made German exports cheaper they should be.  Germany commands considerable economic heft, but, one has to ask, for what purpose?